... A boundary lifts northward across the region tonight with shower/storm chances. Hot weather Friday/Saturday. A cold front crosses late Sunday, with a cooler start to the new work week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 805 PM Thursday...
Reconstructed sky conditions and precip trends heading into this evening as active weather is underway across the southern extent of the forecast area. One cell in particular has had a decent longevity of over two hours at the time of writing, but showing signs of decay as it travels up into the Beckley area.
Looking upstream into the Ohio Valley, an MCV and its surrounding cluster of thunderstorms remain fairly healthy heading into sunset, and this will have to be closely monitored as it makes eastward progress going into the overnight hours. Prime focus will become southeast Ohio where remnant convection from this MCV will aim for after midnight. This could lead to areas of isolated high water issues going into the early Friday morning hours.
As of 300 PM Thursday...
Lingering stratus deck across portions of the region has broken into stratocumulus, providing for a warm, pleasant afternoon across the region with high temperatures topping out in the upper 70s to low 80s for the lowlands. Shower and thunderstorm activity is beginning to develop just to the south of the region along a lingering frontal boundary. This boundary will gradually lift northwards across the area late this evening through the overnight period, serving as a focusing mechanism for shower and thunderstorm development. Portions of the southern/western CWA have been upgraded into a slight risk for severe weather as a result, with the main threats being damaging wind gusts, large hail, and heavy downpours. A few water issues and an isolated tornado are also possible. Greatest threat for severe weather will be confined to southern WV, southwest VA, and the Mid-Ohio Valley. Overnight low temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 60s for much of the CWA, with 50s across the eastern mountains.
The aforementioned surface boundary is progged to lift north of the area by mid morning on Friday. This provides the area with a hot and dry Friday. High temperatures are progged to reach the low to mid 90s across the lowlands, translating into the warmest day of the year thus far. Dew points in the low to mid 60s help to keep heat indices below that of heat advisory criteria. Sensitive groups should however limit time outside tomorrow and take precautions if outdoors, given that it will be the warmest day of the year thus far.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 140 PM Thursday...
Continued hot and humid across the forecast area on Saturday, with strengthening ridge along eastern U.S. A disturbance moving through the area on Saturday afternoon/evening will help to kick off showers and storms across the area, particularly across the far eastern zones. Overnight low temperatures Saturday night will be quite muggy, with lows most areas expected to remain in the 60s.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1230 PM Thursday...
Cold front will move into the area late Sunday afternoon/evening, with showers and thunderstorms increasing across the area as it does so. Still some uncertainty in terms of any severe, but overall threat is looking to be rather low owing to lack of significant shear or upper dynamics. Period still bears watching however. In addition, brief heavy downpours can be expected from any convection that develops with anomalously high PW air taking hold across the region.
Frontal boundary will clear the area late Sunday night into Monday, with additional showers lingering across the region.
Weather pattern becomes more uncertain from Tuesday onward, but general consensus is for an active pattern to continue, along with a gradual warming trend.