Snowshoe Mountain Resort

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Snowshoe, WV

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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... A wave spreads rain north this afternoon with a transition to snow overnight tonight. Cold arctic air sets in quickly Thursday morning and remains for the balance of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 PM Wednesday...

Rain overspreading the area in response to a mid / upper level flat wave approaching from the west-southwest ahead of a cold front is likely to lead to advection fog with the mild, moist air over top of the melting snow pack tonight, before changing to snow once the cold front crosses quickly tonight. The rain and snow pack could get water moving tonight before temperatures fall below freezing overnight.

A period of overnight snow is likely as the wave passes along the front once the front is south of the area. The change over should be clean as sufficiently cold air aloft including ice crystals in cloud arrives before surface temperatures fall below freezing.

Synoptically, the overlap between precipitation and cold air is widest over southwest portions of the area, where snowfall of over two inches is possible. This is where the Winter Weather Advisory is, in kind of a triangle that noses up into north central WV. Part of this may need upgraded if confidence increases in occurrence and placement of an axis of heavier snowfall in the vicinity of the HTS tri-state area.

The quick drop in temperature with rain prior to snow is likely to lead to very slick conditions for the Thursday morning commute. While the snow quits first thing Thursday morning, save for snow showers lingering in the mountains, clouds will linger Thursday, and temperatures will be flat, even falling slightly after daybreak Thursday morning.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM Wednesday...

In the wake of a cold front Arctic high pressure at the surface will overrun the area, and this combined with upper level troughing, will reinforce cold air advection from Canada. This setup will cause morning lows to dip around the single digits almost area-wide Friday morning. Daytime highs will stay well below seasonable with much of the area hovering the mid 20's, slightly cooler in the mountains. The upper level feature will drive a vorticity max through Saturday morning although with anomalously cold and dry air in the lower levels, most moisture will be starved, therefore not expecting any measurable precipitation as a system forms off the coast possibly spreading some slight chances for snow in the higher elevations.

For daytime highs on Saturday, not expecting any areas to break freezing accompanied with dry weather and lows dipping into the low to mid teens for the overnight. On Sunday, more upper level troughing makes its way into across the area due to a system forming over Canada. This feature will spawn a surface low just northwest of us and start to bring in chances for precipitation as heights fall into the next period.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 PM Wednesday...

Chances of precipitation will continue into Monday, however will be mainly confined to the higher elevations. With anomalously cold temperature profiles still existing through the long term period, any hydrometeors will be mostly in the form of snow. Another weak disturbance will ride in on the previous ones coat tails and keep chances of snow on the table into Tuesday with mainly little to no accumulations. Tuesdays highs will likely reach around seasonable, therefore possibly promoting a wintry mix instead of all snow through the daytime. Overnight temperatures are forecast drop into the single digits to teens as cold air advection goes into full effect transitioning any precipitation back to an all snow regime and continuing into midweek.

Long range models were in fairly good agreement on the several aforementioned disturbances therefore accepted blended model guidance for this period. This equated to leaving chances of mainly snow in the forecast starting from Monday into Tuesday where any activity will be mainly confined to the northeast mountains although spreading to the rest of the area by mid Tuesday and continuing through Wednesday.

The significantly below seasonable temperature trend will continued beyond this period with the climate prediction center indicating well below normal temperatures for the rest of the month.

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