Snowshoe Mountain Resort

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Daily chances for showers and storms continue, with the frequency of storms posing concern for localized flooding. Severe storms are possible today and again Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1021 AM Thursday...

The risk for severe thunderstorms has been downgraded from enhanced to slight risk for today and tonight. Nevertheless, the risk for severe storms continue through early Thursday morning. Rest of previous forecast remains on track.

As of 645 AM Wednesday...

Forecast remains on track this morning with only minor changes to hourly temps. Outflow boundary that propelled convection through the area overnight now lays draped through the southern coalfields and up the spine of the Appalachians, with precipitation rates now dwindled. Light stratiform rain still resides along the Ohio River Valley, but should be drifting eastward as the morning wears on.

As of 345 AM Wednesday...

Key Points:

* Early morning convection tracks southward over the next several hours.

* Brief lull in activity this morning into the afternoon, before strong to severe storms return heading into tonight.

* Storms once again will have the potential for damaging wind gusts, large hail, tornadoes, and heavy downpours.

The forecast area remains in the trenches of strong to possibly severe storms early this morning as a multi-segmented line of convection drapes southward. At the time of writing, a cluster of storms extended from eastern Kentucky up into southeast Ohio and becoming primarily outflow driven. Should see further destabilization over the next few hours as activity drifts into a more stable airmass, but will have to continue monitoring for hydro concerns. Precipitation rates of 1-2 inch/hr were noted with activity pressing into the forecast area and is currently entering into an area that has received decent amount of rainfall already these past several days.

After sunrise, the line of weakening activity is slated to be crossing down through the southern coalfields into Virginia, with a further southern push out of the forecast area expected, This should allow for a lull in convective trends into the early afternoon before active weather reappears later in the period. Until then, skies look to clear from north to south throughout today, allowing for afternoon temperatures to climb into the low 80s across the lower elevations. Coupled with dew points in the 60s still festering over the area, another round of moist and unstable conditions will be available for convection that develops upstream during peak heating hours.

A surface low will aid in storm development along a stalled frontal boundary nestled over the region. Hi-res CAMs afternoon activity will start off in the Tennessee/lower Ohio Valleys and propagate eastward through Kentucky and West Virginia by late this evening into tonight. All hazards remain in play within today's convective setup, as diurnal heating will promote local destabilization amidst the warm and moist airmass continuing to retain residency over the region via deep southwesterly flow. As has been the case this evening, radar trends may become sustained by outflow boundaries, but nonetheless will allow for active weather to stretch well into the overnight hours tonight.

Localized flooding concerns remains at the forefront of weather concerns within the period as depleted FFG becomes tested by rounds of showers and storms. 1 hour FFG of 0.75-1.25 inches remains noted across the Ohio River Valley early this morning, with another branch of saturated soils from southwest Virginia up into parts of southern West Virginia. Opted to extend the Flood Watch to encompass our VA counties as well as McDowell and Wyoming Counties in WV due to expected rainfall totals arriving late tonight into this area, which has already seen instances of flash flooding days prior. This Watch will remain in effect until Thursday morning.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 AM Wednesday...

This period starts off with a surface low along the western flank of our CWA border. This feature will have already lifted a warm frontal boundary north of our area while we remain in the warm sector with ongoing shower and storm activity. By this time frame, during the late morning to early afternoon, instability will be lacking and there will even be a small cap along with some low to modest shear. Severe potential will be slim, however with high DCAPE values, long skinny CAPE and super saturated low to even upper levels, flooding with be the main threat, not to mention just over 1.5 inches of PWAT values.

The flood watch will be already inched into this period and will likely be extended further into this period for the rest of Thursday which is a good idea due to the aforementioned weather parameters in place. An excessive rainfall threat will accompany Thursday as well covering almost our entire CWA with a marginal threat insinuating any thunderstorm will be capable of producing heavy showers which may promote some localized and isolated flash flooding issues, hence the main threat.

Not too far behind is the forecast cold front which is slated to move through by 0Z which will then filter in drier air tapering off activity for the late afternoon and evening. There will be chances for showers on the table still due to wrap around flow from the surface low although no thunderstorm activity should take place. This will go on through Friday as an upper level trough rides in right behind the surface low and keeps unsettled weather on the table for us.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1215 PM Wednesday...

Somewhat cooler conditions can be expected for the period, even on Sunday, as a drier northwesterly flow remains over the area. Overnight low temperatures could even dip into the upper 30s across parts of the mountains Sunday morning. Warmer and dry conditions can be expected for Monday with high pressure, surface and aloft, briefly in control. Weather becomes very unsettled again Tuesday onward, as a low in the southern stream approaches the area. Periods of rain, possibly heavy at times can be expected, and the period will need to be monitored for potential water issues.