Snowshoe Mountain Resort

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Snowshoe, WV

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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... High pressure crosses today. Warm front brushes our NW counties Sunday with rain; dry elsewhere. Cold front arrives Monday with rain showers and thunderstorms.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1037 AM Saturday...

Areas of light showers are pushing across the northern portions of the area as a shortwave swings through so updated PoPs to reflect latest radar trends. Also made some tweaks to hourly temperatures this morning, but the remainder of the forecast remains on track.

As of 617 AM Saturday...

Forecast remains on track. No changes needed at this time.

As of 217 AM Saturday...

A surface high pressure gradually builds across the region today. Periods of light rain or drizzle will finally exit east as several upper disturbances rotate through the area. Expect gradual clearing over most of the area, allowing for temperatures to be a little warmer, reaching the mid 60s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 40s higher elevations. However, clouds will return late this evening/night into Sunday as the next system approaches. These later clouds will suppress radiational cooling preventing lows to dip to low. Gusty winds in the teens will be possible during afternoon mixing, subsiding to light to near calm later tonight.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 AM Saturday...

Sunday morning the region will be positioned betwixt surface high pressure of the southeast Atlantic coast and a developing lee side low downwind of the central Rockies. A warm front is forecast to extend from the aforementioned low across the Lower Missouri/Lower Ohio Valley into southern West Virginia. Strengthening southwesterly flow in response to the forward propagating low should see the warm front lifting north into southeast Ohio/northern West Virginia by late morning yielding rain, and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder across southeast Ohio while the remainder of the area remains largely warm and dry. As this feature continues to slowly lift north Sunday night, this precipitation should exit these areas with a mainly dry evening into Monday morning.

A cold front associated with the previously mentioned low approaches during the day Monday with showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. Kinematics ahead of the front are expected to be strong with deep layer shear approaching 60KTs and sfc-1km storm relative helicity values of 150-200m2/s2. Overall severe potential will be limited by relatively meager MLCAPE values of 200-400J/kg owing to generally poor mid-level lapse rates, but at least some potential will exist for organized, low-topped storms with damaging winds or perhaps a tornado or two as the main threats. Timing will be something to watch over the next few runs, could see severe potential tick up with slightly slower timing.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 AM Saturday...

Cold frontal passage occurs Monday night with any remaining precipitation becoming increasingly confined to upslope enhancement in the mountains heading into the day Tuesday. For most, Tuesday will be a dry day as transient ridging builds behind the departing front. Tuesday night could see some frost/freeze issues, largely contingent on how quickly skies clear, but do not plan to highlight this in the HWO at this time given relatively low confidence in temperatures as well as rapidly approaching our climatological latest first freezes, even for the lowlands. Wednesday will be a dry day as transient ridging remains overhead.

Models differ on the ultimate track of the much vaunted bombogenesis and atmospheric river affecting the PacNW this weekend. This energy is ultimately expected to produce another lee cyclone toward the middle of the week with an expansive upper level low or trough lingering over the eastern half of the country Thursday into next weekend. While details remain murky, a several day period of unsettled weather appears probable beginning Thursday.

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