|Dew Point:||1.9°F (-16.7°C)|
|Wind:||From the West at 24.4 MPH Gusting to 37.4 MPH|
|Wind Chill:||9°F (-13°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||29.74" (1007.0 mb)|
Lo 23 °F
Lo 25 °F
Lo 29 °F
Lo 33 °F
Lo 33 °F
Scattered snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Northwest wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Isolated snow showers before 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29. Northwest wind 11 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
A chance of rain, mainly after 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 38. South wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
A chance of snow and sleet before 4am, then a chance of freezing rain and sleet between 4am and 5am, then a chance of rain, freezing rain, and sleet after 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 29. South wind 8 to 11 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A chance of rain, mainly before 7am. Partly sunny, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Rain likely, mainly after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Rain likely before 8am, then rain and snow between 8am and 9am, then rain after 9am. High near 42. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Rain showers likely before 5am, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
000 FXUS61 KRLX 030938 AFDRLX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 438 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016
SYNOPSIS... Chilly high pressure this weekend. Weak upper trough late Sunday into Sunday night. Low pressure Monday night Tuesday. Briefly milder in its wake mid week, then much colder late week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 430 AM Saturday...
-DZ, along with isold -shsn, particularly across the higher terrain, will taper off later this morning into early afternoon, as high pressure builds into the region, and flow becomes less favorable for upslope. Still looking at yet another cloudy cool day, with low level moisture remaining trapped beneath inversion in light flow pattern.
Overnight, kept temperatures several degrees warmer than guidance with overcast sky expected. Some light precipitation will move into southwest Virginia and southern WV zones towards the end of the period as moisture from the gulf advects into the region, and an upper shortwave trough pushes east into the Great Lakes Region during the day Sunday. Still a bit of uncertainty in precipitation type across aforementioned areas early Sunday morning, but at least a brief wintry mix at the onset looks to be likely, with little to no accumulations expected due to brief duration, and light qpf, before changing over to all rain.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 430 PM Saturday...
Precipitation overspreads the area from southwest to northeast on Sunday, as a weak short wave trough crosses. This will be a split system, with the best forcing associated with the short wave passing north of the forecast area. However, channeled vorticity and southern stream moisture will make for another precipitation maxima to the south. With this maxima coming close to the forecast area from the south, precipitation is most likely late Sunday far southern portions of the forecast area, mainly the southern mountains.
Precipitation may begin as a wintry mix far south first thing Sunday morning, but low level warming will bring about a quick change over to rain, without much accumulation or hazard. As the system moves off to the east on Sunday night, there may be enough cold air aloft for a wintry mix in the northern mountains. However, since the moisture layer will be becoming shallow, lack of ice crystals may lead to just drizzle / freezing drizzle but, again, not much hazard.
Weak Pacific high pressure crosses Monday, as upper level ridging crosses late Monday. This will be quickly followed by the next system, an upper level closed low over northwest Mexico early this morning, that ejects out into TX early Monday morning, and then dampens out as it moves up the Ohio Valley Tuesday morning. This, and its attendant surface low pressure system and associated warm advection and dynamics, will result in rain overspreading the forcast area quickly as dawn Tuesday approaches.
The rain will diminish from southwest to northeast Tuesday as the system lifts on through. Little in the way of cold air initially follows the system Tuesday night, so an overcast, damp night appears in store, but any lingering precipitation will be light, and primarily of the liquid variety.
Temperature close to a raw and MOS based blend.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 430 PM Saturday...
Much colder air arrives this period, but with lingering questions as to when the colder air arrives. Models disagree on the degree of cold air eventually coming in Wednesday and Wednesday night in the wake of the Tuesday system, and on the timing of a cold front on Thursday. The two factors combined result in a 15 F degree or more spread between temperature outcomes Thursday. The forecast represents a blend, but a little toward the colder solution, per WPC preference and coordination with neighboring offices.
Rain showers in the wake of the cold front Thursday are thus most likely to mix with and change to snow showers in the west, and over the higher terrain.
Cold canadian air takes over by Thursday night, and dominates through the balance of the forecast, with highs below freezing for the first time this early winter season Friday, and maybe getting back above freezing over the lowlands on Saturday, as upslope snow showers diminish.