|Dew Point:||15.9°F (-8.9°C)|
|Wind:||From the ESE at 2.0 MPH Gusting to 4.0 MPH|
|Sea Level Pressure:||25.37" (859.0 mb)|
Mostly SunnyHigh: 45 Low: 31
Chance Light Snow then Rain And Snow Showers LikelyHigh: 39 Low: 28
Chance Snow ShowersHigh: 33 Low: 18
SunnyHigh: 36 Low: 25
SunnyHigh: 51 Low: 34
Mostly sunny, with a high near 45. South wind around 8 mph.
A chance of rain and snow showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. South wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
A chance of snow showers before 8am, then a chance of snow and a chance of sleet between 8am and 9am, then a chance of snow showers between 9am and 11am, then rain and snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. West wind 1 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than half an inch possible.
Rain showers likely before 9pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Northwest wind 10 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than half an inch possible.
A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Northwest wind around 23 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than half an inch possible.
A chance of snow showers before 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Sunny, with a high near 36.
Clear, with a low around 25.
Sunny, with a high near 51.
... High pressure slides to the east today. A cold front crosses Thursday. An upper level trough crosses Friday with upslope rain and snow showers. High pressure for the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 855 AM Wednesday...
Only some cirrus cover to deal with this morning. Expecting a warmer day and dewpoints to fall again today during mixing. No significant changes to the forecast grids.
As of 115 AM Wednesday...
A high pressure system will slide off to the east today allowing for a southerly wind flow and some cirrus. Based on MOS guidance performance for the last several days, will lean toward the warmer side of guidance for highs this afternoon.
Moisture begins pushing into the region in advance of a cold front Wednesday night. NAM is an outlier among the models with the handling of the system to the east. NAM tries pushing significant precipitation from this system into Pocahontas county. Other models keep the system east of the area or barely graze Pocahontas county. Will go with the majority of models, but keep some chance pops just in case the NAM is right. NAM would show snow in the higher elevations, so this could have significant ramifications if it were to pan out.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 358 AM Wednesday...
For Thursday an upper level trough will affect the area as well as its precipitation shield ahead of the associated cold frontal boundary. Warm northerly flow ahead will keep all precipitation as rain. Went with the GFS for temperatures since the NAM was trying to bring in cold air too soon. With low precipitable water with this system and the dry air aloft in place, low rainfall amounts should be around a quarter an inch, with slightly higher amounts in the northeast mountains. No impacts of flooding are expected. There will be chances for snow in the mountains, however warmer temperatures aloft (850mb = 2C+) and high freezing levels, most of the snow will melt before it hits the ground, so I am expecting sleet mixed in with rain until daytime heating kicks in at which point rain will takeover. Still it is possible some snow may make it to the surface in the highest elevations, even lower elevations or in a heavier shower with the help of arriving cold air advection from the west. No accumulations are anticipated as ground temperatures will be too warm for lower lying areas, however the highest peaks and ridges may have small accumulations of sleet/snow for Thursday morning into the afternoon.
Most of the cold fronts energy will get absorbed into a surface low system to the southeast which will provide the cold air advection from the west. This will help with snow showers along with upslope flow in the northeast mountains and higher elevations along the eastern mountains Thursday evening into Friday. With the help of a reinforcing cold front swinging through Friday, the lingering showers in the northeast mountains will turn to mostly snow with upper level temperatures dropping significantly around -7C to -9C. Surface temperatures will drop below freezing as well. The system from the southeast will travel northeast towards the Atlantic and this will leave behind an upper level trough on the backside over the northeast mountains which will prolong lingering snow showers. The rest of the area will have chances of rain showers for Friday. Snow showers will likely persist until ice crystal growth becomes cut off with dry air entrainment as late as Saturday morning. Expected snowfall totals through Saturday morning are around 0.5 inches in lower elevations in the northeast and up to 3-4 inches for the highest peaks and ridges. Little to no accumulations along the western slopes of the eastern mountains are expected as well.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 358 AM Wednesday...
High pressure will move overhead for Saturday into Sunday. Fair weather persists and the area warms up with the potential to reach into the 60's area wide. Next system approaches Sunday night and models are in better agreement, however diverge slightly on the timing. The GFS and Euro have it quickly exiting the area Monday morning, However the Canadian and NAVGEM have it lingering around until Wednesday morning. At any rate, with warm temperatures in place rain will be the likely culprit with this system. If the system does hang around longer snow is possible in the higher elevations and even elsewhere if cold air advection is strong enough.