... High pressure builds today through the weekend, then gives way to southwest flow early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 845 AM Thursday...
Made a few minor adjustments to sky and temperature grids to better reflect the current conditions this morning. Also removed the slight chance PoPs that remained in the northeast mountains for the next couple of hours. Otherwise, the current forecast is on track.
As of 645 AM Thursday...
Cold front was through most of the area as of early this morning. Stratocu had filled in along the ridges and western slopes of the northern mountains, but appeared to not have precipitated anything yet.
As of 300 AM Thursday...
Stratocu was starting to form in the northern mountains, as low level west to northwest upslope flow had increased in response to a cold front crossing the area overnight. However, the front was finding it hard to squeeze moisture from the stone that is the very dry air mass in place ahead of it. Still carried a slight chance for snow showers in the northern mountains today, as the cold advection behind the front should be able to squeeze something out below the frontal inversion, especially once the top of the cloud, at the inversion just above h85, gets cold enough to support sublimation rather than condensation, -8 to -10 C. Expect nothing more than a coating of snow on the very highest ridges, if that.
The slight chance for a northern mountain snow shower or flurry continues tonight, as it gets even colder, until the cloud becomes too shallow as drier air arrives. Otherwise, much of the lowlands should return to abundant sunshine this afternoon, and remain mostly clear tonight.
Momentum transfer in the mixed layer can bring wind gusts into the 35 to 40 mph range again later today into tonight across the ridges.
Temperatures close to central guidance, a bit higher than previous forecast for highs today with early March mixing, and a little lower in the valleys tonight than previous/central. Wind chills atop the ridges will fall into the single digits either side of zero tonight.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 125 AM Thursday...
Cold nights and cool days through Sunday as the region remains on the eastern periphery of surface high pressure amid northwest flow aloft. Couldn't rule out squeezing out a few flakes in the mountains Saturday with a little moisture sourced from the Great Lakes streaming into the region amid northwesterly low level flow, but chances not high enough to justify any PoPs.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 125 AM Thursday...
Surface high pressure gradually shifts overhead by Sunday night with more mild conditions resuming as southwesterly flow strengthens. A more active pattern looks to resume by mid-week with the first in a parade of systems arriving Wednesday night into Thursday.