... A few showers or thunderstorms possible this afternoon. High pressure builds through the end of the week, yielding increasingly summer-like conditions.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1040 AM Tuesday...
Forecast on track, with showers sandwiched between the the Tug Fork, and a weak warm front southwest of there.
As of 610 AM Tuesday...
Made some minor updates to PoPs to reflect a slightly quicker approach of showers to our SW WV and E KY counties this morning in the vicinity of a weak warm frontal boundary. Should see these elevated showers tick down in intensity a bit a little after daybreak and redevelop early this afternoon as they become surface based.
Also adjusted fog coverage and density based on latest observed trends. Given rather patchy coverage of dense fog, will not issue any highlights for the morning commute.
As of 230 AM Tuesday...
A swath of mid-level cloudiness oriented NW-SE in a zone of mid- level ascent associated with the right rear quadrant of an exiting H250 jet streak and weak theta-e feed from a weakening elevated warm front should continue to thin out toward daybreak as forcing for ascent weakens. Morning fog will be a concern, especially away from this band of thicker cloudiness where thin upper level cloudiness is unlikely to significant limit fog formation. Will need to monitor fog coverage in these areas, particularly SE OH for potential fog SPS or dense fog advisory for the morning commute. Areas under the thicker cloud cover may also have some patchy dense fog down in the river bottoms, but based on current webcam and surface observations low stratus seems favored over dense fog at this time.
Upper level ridging begins to strengthen over the area today as the aforementioned elevated warm front begins to wash out. While mid- level lapse rates are not especially impressive, surface heating coupled with a moist boundary layer should yield at least modest conditional instability by this afternoon with pop-up showers and thunderstorms possible, mainly south of US-50. Flow up through H500 is pretty weak, under 10KTs with our position under the building ridge, so would not expect individual updrafts to be able to persist for very long. Precipitation chances wane with loss of heating early this evening.
As clouds thin overnight tonight, a combination of residual low level moisture, calm winds, and decent radiational cooling will likely yield another night of valley fog.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 AM Tuesday...
An upper level ridge and surface high pressure continue to build into the area on Wednesday and then remain in control throughout the short term period. Drier weather is generally expected during this time, though a passing disturbance could bring a few showers or storms across the western part of the CWA on Wednesday. Additionally, it is possible for an isolated shower or storm to pop up during the afternoons due daytime heating.
Temperatures are expected to rise well above normal, reaching 80s in the lowlands and 60s-70s in the high elevations each day.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 255 AM Tuesday...
During the long term period, ridging and surface high pressure will start receding to the southwest. Friday is expected to remain dry, then rain and storm chances return this weekend into early next week as several shortwaves cross through the area. Some uncertainty exists in how early rain/storm chances will begin for the weekend as the GFS introduces chances on Saturday while the ECMWF maintains drier conditions into Sunday. For now have elected to take a middle of the road approach that includes low end PoPs beginning Saturday.
Above normal temperatures are expected to continue throughout the long term period.