|Dew Point:||45.0°F (7.2°C)|
|Wind:||From the SSE at 2.0 MPH Gusting to 2.0 MPH|
|Sea Level Pressure:||24.96" (845.1 mb)|
Rain Showers LikelyHigh: 45 Low: 33
Chance Rain And Snow Showers then Mostly CloudyHigh: 38 Low: 36
Mostly SunnyHigh: 47 Low: 34
Areas Of Frost then SunnyHigh: 57 Low: 44
Slight Chance Rain ShowersHigh: 58 Low: 50
Rain showers likely. Mostly cloudy. High near 45, with temperatures falling to around 40 in the afternoon. West wind 14 to 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
A chance of rain showers before 5am, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Northwest wind 24 to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
A chance of rain showers before 8am, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 8am and 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Northwest wind 22 to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A slight chance of rain showers between 8pm and 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Northwest wind 21 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 47. Northwest wind 10 to 20 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 34.
Areas of frost before 9am. Sunny, with a high near 57.
A slight chance of rain showers after 3am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 44.
A slight chance of rain showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 58.
... Cold front crosses today. High pressure for the end of the work week and into the weekend. Another system late in weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 915 AM Wednesday...
Surface cold front just moving into the Charleston area at this hour. Bumped up winds along and behind the front to reflect upstream observation trends and will continue with the wind advisory for the mountains this evening through midday Thursday. Precipitation for the lowlands will taper off to showers behind the front with any remaining showers ending by this afternoon. In the mountains, persistent moist upslope will yield continuing precipitation through at least Thursday morning. Temperatures for the highest elevations will near the freezing mark overnight and given shallow nature of the moist air mass and no seeder clouds above will see mostly liquid precipitation in an environment generally unfavorable for ice nucleation.
As of 651 AM Wednesday...
Latest surface analysis shows the cold front just now moving into southeast OH and eastern KY. Latest radar imagery shows areal coverage of precipitation has greatly increased across the area over the last couple of hours. Freshened up PoPs to better reflect latest radar trends but remainder of the forecast remains on track at this time.
As of 405 AM Wednesday...
Despite MUCAPEs generally less than 1000 J/kg, strong dynamics associated with a sharp upper level trough in the Great Lakes has led to the development of a solid line of showers and thunderstorms that is currently approaching western portions of the CWA. However, models continue to suggest a decreasing trend in instability will lead to less thunder chances as the morning progresses. Meanwhile, a secondary band of showers over southwest VA continues to lift to the NE ahead of the convection to the west. Areal coverage of precipitation will continue to increase over the next several hours towards daybreak as a surge of deeper moisture moves into the area aided by a low level jet of 30-35 kts. PWATs are expected to increase to 1.20-1.30 inches immediately along and ahead of a strong cold front that is approaching the area this morning from the west. Given strong upper level support and impressive surface convergence, a good opportunity for measurable precipitation exists across the region towards daybreak and beyond.
As the upper trough in the Great Lakes becomes more negatively oriented through the late morning and afternoon, the cold front is expected to pick up speed. This should result in the frontal boundary pushing east of the entire area after around 18Z this afternoon. Drier air will quickly build into the area as high pressure moves in from the central Plains. However, enough low level moisture and orographic lift will be in place to support continued precipitation chances in the mountains this afternoon. In addition, winds will quickly shift to the NW and become gusty immediately following the frontal passage as strong cold air advection steepens low-level lapse rates. Given the potential for gusts greater than 40 kts in the mountains, have decided to issue a Wind Advisory in the northeast mountains which begins tonight and extends into the short term period on Thursday afternoon. In regards to temperatures, it will be a rather cool day with temperatures generally remaining steady or even slightly falling throughout the day as highs stay around 10 degrees below normal.
As the negatively tilted upper trough axis lifts across the region tonight and northwest flow strengthens, PoPs will be on an increasing trend in the mountains as upslope precipitation continues. While the majority of the precipitation should occur in the form of liquid, forecast sounding around Snowshoe suggest that moisture depth may be deep enough to support ice crystal formation for the overnight period into Thursday morning. Thus, expect rain/snow showers to occur along higher elevations and even just snow showers along the highest ridgetops. Given the warm ground temperatures, accumulations will be light with most areas looking at a quick coating. However, can't rule out amounts up to an inch along the highest ridgetops.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 245 AM Wednesday...
Northwest upslope clouds and possibly some showers or drizzle remain possible into Thursday. Temperatures at the top of the low level moisture layer are marginal for the support of ice crystals. Might see some flakes at times in the higher elevations, but not expecting any significant accumulation.
A high pressure system will build in Thursday night, remaining for Friday and Saturday. In mountain valleys where winds decouple Thursday night and Friday night, could see some frost.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 245 AM Wednesday...
Models have started to come into agreement with a southern system moving northward on Sunday. However, models still differ on how much this system will affect our region. Models are also coming into better agreement with a strong cold front moving through Monday night or Tuesday.