|Dew Point:||20.7°F (-6.3°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||-9999.00" (-338566.1 mb)|
Lo 60 °F
Lo 60 °F
Lo 56 °F
Lo 42 °F
Lo 40 °F
Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. Southwest wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 2pm, then isolated showers between 2pm and 4pm, then isolated showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. West wind 10 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. Southwest wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
A slight chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 9am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. South wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
A slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. South wind 14 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Showers and thunderstorms likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. High near 66. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 9pm, then a chance of showers between 9pm and 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 55. Breezy.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 40. Breezy.
000 FXUS61 KRLX 290752 AFDRLX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 352 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017
SYNOPSIS... Warm front lifts through overnight. Next cold front Monday. Upper low with unsettled weather to end the work week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 335 AM Saturday...
Busy night so far with waves of convection moving west to east across the central/northern portions of the CWA. Models taking two different approaches with this...one camp transitioning things north pretty quickly through the early morning hours, but the other camp brings the activity to our west straight east into I-64 corridor -- or just north. This seems like the better forecast with nose of low level jet still in the region, so have highest POPs through 12Z along and north of I64, then transition activity farther north as the nose of the jet also moves north. Maintain some isolated to scattered showers and storms today and tonight...mainly in SE Ohio and also mountains of WV.
Opted to go with a shotgun flash flood watch into early afternoon. HRRR shows multiple waves of convection moving through SE Ohio this morning, which could lead to an additional 1-2 inches of rain. Combined with up to an inch that has fallen already early this morning, anticipate there could be some issues on creeks and streams in the middle Ohio River Valley.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 AM Saturday...
In the warm sector, cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm across the northern half of the CWA Sunday. Otherwise just looking at a summer like day with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s across the lowlands.
Cold front moves through on Monday with showers and storms. Ahead of the cold front we should have a modestly unstable air mass with decent shear as well. This could lead to at least an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm during the afternoon east of the Ohio River -- as noted by marginal risk from SPC. Have included this in the HWO.
In the wake of the cold front, cooler and drier weather moves in for Tuesday and Tuesday night.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 345 AM Saturday...
The bulk of the long term looks to be influenced by a close upper low developing somewhere across the midwest Thursday into Friday. GFS and ECMWF both show the feature, but handle it differently. Either way it looks like a cool, cloudy and rainy end of the work week. Stuck close to a consensus blend, which despite the model differences, still has likely POPs Thursday into Friday.