|Dew Point:||59.2°F (15.1°C)|
|Wind:||From the SSE at 1.0 MPH Gusting to 6.0 MPH|
|Sea Level Pressure:||25.47" (862.4 mb)|
Partly CloudyLow: 60
Scattered Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 72 Low: 61
Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 72 Low: 59
Chance Rain ShowersHigh: 71 Low: 60
Mostly SunnyHigh: 76 Low: 62
Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. West wind around 3 mph.
Isolated rain showers between 9am and 11am, then scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 72. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 11pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 61. West wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A slight chance of rain showers before 7am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 7am and 9am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9am and 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 72. West wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. West wind around 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
A chance of rain showers before noon, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between noon and 4pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 71. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 62.
... Dry warm front lifts north tonight. Deep ridge provides tranquil weather into midday Saturday. Another cold front reaches the area from the west Saturday night through Monday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 740 PM Friday...
Sent a quick update to clean up clouds per latest METARs and VIS satellite imagery showing mostly clear skies with few areas of diurnal cu with little vertical extend. Radar images showed how isolated thunderstorms decayed over northeast KY and portions of central WV late this afternoon. Convective activity is expected to cease by sunset. Expect a mostly clear night and near calm or weak northerly flow. Some low strato cu could develop from the central mountains, west to portions of Kanawha county overnight, as suggested by SREF probabilities.
Removed PoPs and associated showers or storms keeping it dry for the rest of tonight. Although outside of season, conditions are a little favorable for some fog development during the predawn hours on Saturday, mainly along the river valleys.
As of 225 PM Friday...
Models indicate a wave traversing around the peripheral of the ridge will allow showers and perhaps some morning storms in the vicinity of the OH River Saturday morning, shifting eastward as the day progresses. I've increased pops for tomorrow, but not quite as high as some models are suggesting. Highs tomorrow will be dependent on convection but we should still manage at least low 80s.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday...
Showers and storms wind down for the most part overnight, with scattered activity mainly along the aforementioned boundary across the north and in the mountains. By early Sunday, a northern stream trough skirts to the north of the Great Lakes, tightening the mass gradient for us. As a result, warm, moist flow converges again along a weak cold front limping down into the Ohio Valley, providing the focus for more shower/storm chances on Sunday. Thus a ring-of-fire type patter persists, with ripples of energy in the mean ridge generating waves of convection along the boundary through Sunday night.
Storm training could lead to flooding Sunday and Sunday night. Something to keep a close eye on is where rain falls Friday and Saturday, and if vulnerable locations arise before steadier rain arrives Sunday. In general the flood threat will increase with each round of moderate to heavy rain Sunday. There is damaging wind potential, but details this far out are a bit sketchy at this time.
Modest NW flow behind the wave brings in slightly cooler, drier air Monday for brief break - although a few storms are still possible especially in the mountains as the remnant boundary remains draped across the area.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 315 PM Friday...
Monday night into early Tuesday, the ridge axis across the South shifts east allowing for warm advection to return with gusto. Warm frontal showers and storms are possible, but current timing overnight would rely on frontal forcing to realize elevated instability, so have stuck with chance/slight chance PoPs.
Tuesday and Wednesday, 850mb temps soar to near 20 C translating to surface temperatures reaching into the low-90's across the lowlands and 80's across most of the mountains (even Snowshoe at 4848' reaches the mid-70's). Models continue to trend dry for the bulk of the area for this time period with the exception of elevated-heat-source type showers and storms across the mountains. Should the warm front move through later into the daytime hours of Tuesday, more showers and storms are possible.
Late in the week, models agree on a pattern shift with greater chances for troughing across the earn CONUS as opposed to persistent ridging that has plagued the region for several days. This will likely lead to rounds of storms as cold fronts and surface systems associated with troughs move across the area. The consolation prize with these would be more seasonable, reasonable May temperatures back down into the 60's (highest ridges) to near 80 (western lowlands).