|Dew Point:||66.3°F (19.1°C)|
|Wind:||From the SW at 1.0 MPH Gusting to 3.0 MPH|
|Sea Level Pressure:||25.41" (860.4 mb)|
Showers And Thunderstorms LikelyHigh: 79 Low: 65
Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 71 Low: 57
Rain Showers LikelyHigh: 63 Low: 51
SunnyHigh: 66 Low: 53
SunnyHigh: 69 Low: 57
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. West wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. West wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71. West wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 57. West wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
Rain showers likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 63. Northwest wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
A chance of rain showers before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 51. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunny, with a high near 66.
Mostly clear, with a low around 53.
Sunny, with a high near 69.
... Sunday will only be slightly less hot. Cold front Monday/Monday night. Cooler, drier next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 245 AM Sunday...
Unsettled weather returns to the area in the near term period. Upper ridge will start to break down today, as an upper trough gradually deepens across the eastern U.S. Several shortwaves out ahead of main trough will move through the area today, and this with a moist southerly flow, will help to generate showers and thunderstorms across the area today. Believe bulk of activity earlier today will be south of the Ohio River, with an increase in activity during peak heating hours. Some of this activity will die off later tonight, but a cold front will be approaching the CWA from the north, which should help to keep some activity going, particularly across northern zones. Cold front progged to be in vcnity of Ohio River towards the end of the period.
Main threat with convection today will be slow moving storms, with heavy downpours. Overall, threat for widespread flash flooding is low, due to relatively dry conditions, and overall scattered nature of convection. FFG is generally around 2 inches an hour across most of the CWA. So, although it's certainly a possibility localized issues could develop, not expecting quite enough of a threat at this point to warrant a watch. A slight risk for excessive rainfall exists for much of the CWA.
In addition, there is a small possibility of a strong to severe storm with damaging wind gusts the threat. This is due to precip loading from high moisture content air, pwats around 2 inches. A marginal risk exists for much of the northern half of the CWA.
As far as heat criteria today, thinking we could reach advisory criteria of heat indices around 100 today in spots. However, the coverage, and duration of this isn't expected to be enough to warrant a heat headline/advisory, particularly with the threat of convection and increased cloud cover today. Instead, will mention in the HWO, and allow day shift to monitor.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 AM Sunday...
Keeping the short term forecast period on the shorter side, where the active weather is going to be.
On the synoptic scale, expecting a cold front to push through the region, once it finally gets driven through by a 500mb trough axis swinging through. Part of the complication here is that there could possibly be a surface wave develop along this front as it pushes into the mountains, thus potentially slowing its exit and creating a convective training situation. Plenty of lower/mid level forcing available with bands of frontogenesis working through the area.
Expecting copious surface/lower level moisture pooling along the front and PWATs to spike over 2 inches, so the set up is there for a heavy rain event, especially with the potential for much of the column to be utilized by updrafts. Expecting a lot of cloud cover, however, so this could be a key inhibiting factor to the aforementioned instability. Areal coverage is going to be key, as well as ground conditions after the activity expected today.
Temperatures come down with the rain and clouds, even prior to frontal passage.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 325 AM Sunday...
For this time of year, the extended forecast could be one of the quieter stretches of weather in some time. Once the cold front passes, and it should be through the mountains by Tuesday morning, the heavy rain potential will end. The upper level trough axis will likely run out of appreciable column moisture to work with by the afternoon as dry air advects in, so only carrying low end POPs, mainly in the mountains for Tuesday. Beyond Tuesday, the lower dewpoints and cooler temperatures largely holds through mid week, slowing increasing on both fronts into the weekend. No organized weather systems/rain through Sunday.