... Enough moisture will remain for a chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms through Saturday, particuarly in, or near the mountains.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1000 PM Thursday...
Forecast on track.
As of 810 PM Thursday...
Forecast on track, as scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms that came north-northwestward out of the mountains were slowly dissipating. Fog tonight should be more of the valley variety, and a bit slower to settle in, compared with last night.
As of 305 PM Thursday...
Fog and stratus deck that was firmly entrenched across the region has dissipated for the most part over the past few hours. Meanwhile, isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed across the eastern/southern portions of the region. Any activity this afternoon and evening will be of the non-severe variety, and should quickly dissipate near sunset. High temperatures for the lowlands will range from the upper 70s to low 80s, with mid 60s to mid 70s for the higher terrain.
Tonight will be tranquil across the region with fog development possible, particuarly for the valleys and eastern portions of the region. Low-level winds will be stronger across the central and western portions of the area, which will likely hinder fog development to a degree. Low temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid 60s for the lowlands, and upper 50s to low 60s for the higher terrain.
Friday will be mainly tranquil across the region, with a continued chance for isolated diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Activity will once again be mainly confined to the eastern/southern portions of the area. High temperatures on Friday will be on average about 5 degrees warmer than today.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 219 PM Thursday...
Model consensus shows a shortwave trof will push across eastern Canada and the Great Lakes states Friday night and Saturday. As a result, northwest flow is forecast to develop across the region.
A cold front will push into the area and weaken on Saturday. There is still some question on exactly how far south the boundary will make it. Precipitation chances should wind down after sunset Friday. However, chances will return from the west late Friday night and Saturday.
An upper level ridge will build in on Sunday, along with high pressure in the lower levels. This should result in a much quieter and drier finish to the weekend.
Temperatures are expected to be above normal through the weekend, with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s in the lowlands, and upper 60s to low 80s in the mountains. Lows will be in the 60s with mid to upper 50s in the higher elevations.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1253 PM Thursday...
At the start of the long term period, an upper level ridge will be located along the east coast while a longwave trough will be over the western half of the country. Models suggest a shortwave trough will be located across the lower Mississippi valley.
The shortwave trough will move northeast and weaken while the longwave trough pushes east and deepens. This will result in the upper level ridge breaking down and drifting southeast.
Long range models differ on the progress of the eastward progress of the longwave trough with the GFS being slightly faster than the ECMWF. The models also differ in the location of a cold front which should push east late in the period.
The end result should be increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms with temperatures falling to normal or even slightly below normal values late.