|Dew Point:||32.6°F (0.3°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||25.29" (856.3 mb)|
Chance Light RainHigh: 44 Low: 32
Light Snow Likely then Chance Snow ShowersHigh: 36 Low: 12
Chance Snow ShowersHigh: 16 Low: 6
Partly SunnyHigh: 22 Low: 16
Chance Snow ShowersHigh: 27 Low: 18
A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 44. South wind 17 to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Rain. Cloudy. Low around 32, with temperatures rising to around 40 overnight. Southwest wind 9 to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
Rain before 7am, then sleet likely and rain likely between 7am and 8am, then snow likely between 8am and noon, then a chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy. High near 36, with temperatures falling to around 20 in the afternoon. Northwest wind 13 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around one inch possible.
A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. Wind chill values as low as -2. West wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of around one inch possible.
A chance of snow showers before 5pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 16. West wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 6.
Partly sunny, with a high near 22.
A slight chance of snow showers after 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16.
A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
... An approaching cold front brings all rain today into tonight, transitioning to all snow by early Thursday, as a wave along the front goes by. Cold fronts Saturday night and Monday night.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 320 AM Wednesday...
Opted to issue a flood watch for 6 counties in SE Ohio. These are the areas where there was some minor flooding after the last system. QPF is a bit less with this system, but according to the NOHRSC site, snow melt could add a substantial amount of water to the equation. Looking at the modeled 24 hour snow melt from 12Z today to 12Z Thursday -- portions of SE Ohio will be melting out nearly an inch of snow water equivalent. Granted, a lot of this may happen before the better rain rates arrive, but that is still a lot of extra water moving through the system when combined with the roughly one inch of rain expected to fall.
As of 1250 AM Wednesday...
A surface low in central Missouri will gradually make its way northeast into the Great Lakes today into tonight. This will bring increasing southerly winds, providing a mild day despite mid to high clouds. A cold front will move into SE Ohio around 00Z this evening...and march its way across the forecast area overnight. Ahead of this cold front, precipitation will arrive from west to east today. Tightened up the gradient with the pops, mainly resulting in a bit drier forecast across central WV into the afternoon. Mid level temperatures will be warm enough for this to be all rain across most of the forecast area. The exception is the eastern slopes where moisture advecting into the mountains could kick off some light rain early this morning where surface temperatures will still be below freezing. Only have slight chance POPs with this, so no ice accumulation mentioned.
Precipitable water values surge up to around an inch ahead of the cold front. This will drive moderate rain, with generally 0.75" to 1.25". The ground is still saturated -- and frozen in some spots -- so expect most of this rainfall to become runoff. It will also help melt any snow -- adding to the runoff. This will lead to rises on creeks and streams...and eventually rivers. Localized flooding in typical low spots and areas of poor drainage is possible.
Winds will become a bit gusty today as 850mb flow increases to 50-70kts but under warm advection this will not fully mix down so going gusts of around 20kts, except 30-35kt along the higher ridges. The 850mb flow decreases late today, before the low level cold advection kicks in.
That low level cold advection will turn on as the cold front crosses tonight. The column cools enough to transition from rain to snow from west to east after midnight. Also expect a very brief period with some sleet right at the transition time. Have around a half inch of snow across the middle Ohio River Valley by daybreak as surface temperatures drop into the mid to upper 20s. Used a blend of high res consensus and ECMWF MOS for temperatures.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 435 AM Wednesday...
Thursday will be a near repeat of Sunday, with rain transitioning to snow in the wake of a cold front, along with a little help from a wave moving up along the front. There is one difference, in that temperatures are not destined to get as low as they did on Sunday. As a result, road conditions across the lowlands will improve relatively quickly once the snow diminishes to scattered snow showers Thursday morning, as temperatures recover to right around freezing. One has to go all the way to the highest terrain to get temperatures as low as the lowlands experienced Sunday. There, snow showers will persist all day, with temperatures as low as the teens by the end of the day.
Snow amounts will an inch or less across the lowlands, with up to two inches across the higher ridges and windward slopes. However, temperatures falling below freezing during the morning rush, as the rain changes to snow, could cause a glaze of ice with a little snow on top. Lowlands just west of the mountains may not quite get below freezing until just after the rush. For the higher mountainous terrain, any untreated surfaces will remain icy with some snow cover into Friday, as a reinforcing cold front enhances upslope snow showers once again overnight Thursday night.
High pressure brings cold, dry weather Friday through Friday night, save for upslope snow showers gradually waning on Friday. Any moisture on roads could freeze Thursday night, and highs Friday are forecast to be below freezing throughout the forecast area.
A low pressure center passes north of the area Saturday and Saturday night. Warm advection light snow could occur across northern portions of the area on Saturday, and then the cold front could bring snow showers throughout the forecast area Saturday night.
Central guidance temperatures looked reasonable, except to employ a bit of the raw NAM12 for slightly lower values on Thursday.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 435 AM Tuesday...
This period starts with the chance for snow showers on Sunday, as a cold front pushes off to the east, and then upslope flow develops. The chance should diminish from the west Sunday afternoon, and then upslope snow showers in the mountains gradually wane Sunday night, as a small surface high quickly scoots across.
Despite ongoing long wave troughing over the central and eastern U.S., the upper level flow ahead of an approaching short wave trough backs sufficiently for associated surface low pressure to track north of the area Monday through Monday night. This allows enough warm air for rain across all but the higher terrain of the northern WV mountains Monday afternoon and evening.
Precipitation transitions to snow showers throughout the area Monday night, as the cold front crosses. The chance for snow showers continues Tuesday, as the short wave trough crosses, and upslope flow develops. Upslope snow showers could continue into Tuesday night.
Central guidance reflects temperatures moderating Sunday through Monday, ahead of the next system, and then returning to well below normal in its wake, as the long wave trough in the central and eastern U.S. becomes more stout for mid week.