|Dew Point:||25.5°F (-3.6°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||-9999.00" (-338566.1 mb)|
Hi 56 °F
Hi 59 °F
Hi 58 °F
Hi 54 °F
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. South wind around 8 mph.
A chance of showers, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56. South wind 9 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Showers. Low around 46. South wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59. West wind 9 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
A slight chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. Southwest wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
A chance of showers before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 54.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 37.
000 FXUS61 KRLX 260213 AFDRLX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1013 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017
SYNOPSIS... Low pressure passes to the northwest on Sunday with showers and storms. Another system Monday night into Tuesday, and again late in the work week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1010 PM Saturday...
Additional adjustments made to the POPs for Sunday, but the overall story is the same, including the timing of onset.
As of 1220 PM Saturday...
Quiet weather continues in the near term through tonight. It will remain very mild tonight as gradient winds pick up and a variably cloudy sky remains. The near vertically stacked low pressure currently over MS Valley will track into IL late tonight, putting the region in good upper level divergence. Closer to the surface, we expect a decaying band of storms will make a run toward western zones just after daybreak. The thinking is this should be void of thunder by the time it arrives such that just some light showers are expected as it pivots into the area. Behind this feature, there should be some drying in the mid levels advecting in for the afternoon as the stacked low makes a run MI with some recovery at the surface. As heating is maximized in the afternoon, expect showers and storms to develop in the afternoon. Some of these could be on the strong side along and north of the OH River and including northeast KY. Model soundings and NCAR ensembles suggest good shear with some low level helicity. Lacking is much in the way of instability given a fairly moist column. Having said that...given the dynamics involved and the shear...we do feel there is the potential for strong to possibly severe low topped convection in the aforementioned locations. Given the shear profile, there could also be some rotation in the more robust convection, particularly across southeast OH.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 314 PM Friday...
Showers and possibly some thunderstorms will continue Sunday night as a low pressure system moves north of the area. Models showing decent low level shear Sunday evening, although CAPE is marginal. Could not rule out a couple of severe storms in the western counties.
The region stays in the warm sector as this system moves off to the northeast, allowing for mild weather to continue on Monday. Another system will provide showers and possibly thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 314 PM Friday...
Behind a weak cold front, slightly cooler but mild temperatures can be expected for mid week. Models then show another system for the end of the week. There are large differences in the timing and placement of this system between the various models, leading to a low confidence forecast.