|Dew Point:||26.7°F (-2.9°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||25.11" (850.2 mb)|
Chance Freezing Drizzle then Chance DrizzleHigh: 35 Low: 19
SunnyHigh: 35 Low: 27
SunnyHigh: 43 Low: 33
Rain Showers LikelyHigh: 45 Low: 39
Rain Showers LikelyHigh: 44 Low: 27
A chance of freezing drizzle and a slight chance of sleet before 11am, then a chance of drizzle between 3pm and 5pm, then a chance of freezing drizzle. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Northwest wind 21 to 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
A chance of snow showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Northwest wind 10 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Sunny, with a high near 35. Northwest wind 5 to 12 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 27. Southwest wind around 6 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 43. Southwest wind around 7 mph.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33.
Rain showers likely after 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Rain showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
... Chilly northwest flow today and tonight. High pressure Tuesday into Wednesday. A strong system moves across Thursday through Friday, with another soaking rain. Colder next weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 635 AM Monday...
Forecast on track, with low clouds most tenacious northeast portions of the forecast area, and breaking up and filling back in southwest. The morning cu effect should enhance the latter process.
As of 400 AM Monday...
Stratocu persists in cold advection low level flow, as moisture remains trapped beneath a sharpening inversion at or just below h85. Clearing was taking place in parts of th middle Ohio Valley early this morning, with breaks even ahead of the clearing line, in a lull in the cold advection. This trend may somewhat continue early this morning, but could be interrupted at times this morning after sunrise, on the morning cu effect.
In the meantime, any drizzle or freezing drizzle this morning appears to be limited to the higher ridges of the central and northern WV mountains, with any ice accretion quite limited. The moist air beneath the inversion will remain too warm to support the presence of ice crystals in cloud this morning. Any drizzle and freezing drizzle will wane for a time later this morning and this afternoon.
However, another surge of cold advection from the north later today and tonight will reinvigorate the low cloud, which will likely spread from north to south again later today and tonight. This will also reinvigorate the drizzle and freezing drizzle across the higher mountainous terrain, but this time, the moist layer beneath the inversion cools to about -10C, low enough to support ice crystals in cloud. This will replace the freezing drizzle with snow, and the flurries could persist overnight there, given the more favored temperatures for crystal growth.
Latest near term guidance warranted minor adjustments to temperatures but lower dew points later today and tonight. The drier air should also keep precipitation in the mountains limited tonight.
Strong northwest flow aloft around the back side of low pressure exiting to the north and east will push wind gusts to around 40 mph across the higher ridge tops today, before gradually diminishing tonight.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 215 AM Monday...
High pressure will be in control during the short term period, with a much needed break in the precipitation, and a return of sunshine to the area. Still cool on Tuesday as area remains under a northwesterly flow, but as the high pressure slides off to the east by Wednesday, and upper heights build across the area in response to a deepening trough across the central U.S., will see temperatures warm nicely on Wednesday, into the lower to mid 50s for much of the region. Clouds will be on the increase by later in the day Wednesday, out ahead of the next strong low pressure system to affect the area.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 220 AM Monday...
Precipitation will return to the area by late Wednesday night or Thursday, as a low pressure system forms across the southern Mississippi Valley region and moves northeast into the area, advecting high amounts of moisture into the region as it does so. Expecting a period of heavy rainfall once again, along with windy conditions particuarly Friday into Saturday as the system moves overhead. By Friday night into Saturday, could even see a change over to light snow showers as the low moves off to the northeast and flow turns more northerly/northwesterly. In addition to the precipitation, winds will become quite gusty at times, particularly in the Friday through Saturday time frame as the low moves closer to the region, and have bumped up wind gusts from previous forecast during this time frame.
At this point, have a general 0.6 to 0.9 inches of qpf coded for the Thursday/Thursday night time frame, with additional amounts expected Friday into Saturday. With the very saturated ground, am concerned about the development of water issues during this period, and will highlight in the HWO.