Snowshoe Mountain Resort

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Snowshoe, WV

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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Upper level low affects the mountains into the morning. Relatively fair weather to start the weekend. Active pattern returns for next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 920 PM Thursday...

Based on latest meso-models and radar trends, have lowered snow totals in the northern mountains for the overnight period.

As of 837 PM Thursday...

Have issued a frost advisory for Buchanan and Dickenson counties for tonight. Still have some concern for Lawrence and Carter counties in Kentucky, but due to wind threat, will just leave as patchy frost in protected valleys.

As of 638 PM Thursday...

Updated the forecast to remove frost overnight in the Ohio counties where winds will be to strong.

As of 541 PM Thursday...

Updated sky cover for late this afternoon and evening based on the latest satellite and meso-model trends.

As of 125 PM Thursday...

The main feature for this period will be an upper level low continuing to move east, however not fast enough, as it will provide some snow showers in the northeast mountains overnight. With northwesterly flow in place, upslope effect will help promote snow confined to the very tops of the peaks and ridges with up to an inch or more possible. Slightly lower elevations should only see a dusting. Depending on how much moisture that can get pumped in from Lake Erie will determine whether or not if there is enough moisture to keep snow showers going past the morning. Soundings indicated the moisture layer shrinking, therefore any snow would turn into a light freezing drizzle by the late morning. Kept a model blend for snow/qpf and went off snow ratios for final amounts. Was not confident enough to add freezing drizzle into the forecast for the morning and since it would likely account for an insignificant amount of time, felt good about sticking to an all snow regime.

The rest of the area gets to endure quiet settled weather although the southern areas of our CWA may see some frost by morning. After full collaboration with neighboring offices our thoughts were that enough wind and cloud coverage may be enough to alleviate most frost development. Some patchy frost may sneak into cold spots near hilly terrain, but so for now held off on any headlines other than mentioning it in the HWO. Temperatures will struggle to dip below 35 degrees overnight with most of the area under clouds and steady wind. The mountains are forecast to drop below freezing which will allow for decent accumulations if strong enough upslope and moisture flux goes into effect for the highest elevations. For tomorrow, the clouds will slowing erode somewhat, but only allow temperatures to reach seasonable with the area mostly dry except for some lingering showers in the northeast mountains.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM Thursday...

Surface high pressure and weak H500 ridging take control of weather conditions providing dry and mild weather Friday through Saturday morning.

Below normal temperatures will continue in the short term period. With relatively cold air remaining in place, mostly clear skies will allow for radiational cooling to push temperatures down into the mid 30s. This will pose a threat for frost for sensitive vegetation Friday night into Saturday morning. A Frost advisory may be needed.

A weak upper level shortwave approaches from the west, leading to chances for light rain showers for much of the day Saturday. These showers should begin to move out Saturday, but yet another shortwave approaches Sunday for additional showers to end the weekend.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 PM Thursday...

The long term looks active with a series of upper level shortwaves affecting the area Sunday. Then, a surface high pressure begin to build from the west Sunday night into Monday, providing dry weather and mild temperatures to start the new week.

Models suggest a stronger upper level trough to develop by mid week pushing a cold front and bringing back chances for showers Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Temperatures will remain at or below normal through the long term period. A small warming trend will be possible into Tuesday, nearly warming up to around normal before temperatures fall back below normal by Wednesday.

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