|Dew Point:||2.5°F (-16.4°C)|
|Wind:||From the SSW at 10.5 MPH Gusting to 12.3 MPH|
|Wind Chill:||27°F (-3°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||-9999.00" (-338566.1 mb)|
Hi 45 °F
Hi 56 °F
Hi 62 °F
Hi 33 °F
Hi 27 °F
A slight chance of showers after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 45. South wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. Southwest wind 9 to 11 mph.
A chance of showers, mainly after 10am. Increasing clouds, with a high near 56. South wind 9 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Showers likely, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. Southwest wind 15 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Showers likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 9am. High near 62. Breezy, with a southwest wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Rain showers likely before midnight, then a chance of rain and snow showers between midnight and 2am, then a chance of snow showers after 2am. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
A chance of snow showers before 9am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 33. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
A chance of snow showers after 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
A chance of snow showers before 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 27. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
000 FXUS61 KRLX 271421 AFDRLX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 921 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017
SYNOPSIS... Warmer weather moving in with a strong cold front expected midweek.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 920 AM Monday...
No changes needed to the near term forecast. Light rain is moving into the area across northwestern zones as expected.
As of 610 AM Monday...
Have increased pops across the northwest half of the area this morning per radar trends. Still, any QPF will be quite light.
As of 240 AM Monday...
This will be a transition period toward warmer and unsettled weather. Models in very good agreement on an upper disturbance lifting a weak warm front northward across the area today. Models actually split the energy with this upper feature as it approaches, with one piece tracking mainly across the north portion of the area, and a second piece tracking south of the area. This means while clouds will be widespread today across the area, precip chances will most likely be restricted to the north. Since the air is initially quite dry, will keep highest pops in the chance range today up north, and any QPF that may occur would be very light at best. Despite the clouds today, southerly flow behind the warm front will boost temperatures. Look for highs today in the lower 50s north to the lower 60s far south.
For tonight, the upper disturbance and warm front will be north of the area, but another upper disturbance will approach late tonight from the southwest. So, we start out dry and bring a low chance of rain showers late, especially west. With the clouds and south breeze tonight, low temperatures will only be in 40s.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 AM Monday...
Highlight of the short term will be the approaching cold front and potential water/severe weather threats heading into Wednesday.
Flows increase ahead of the front with strong shear profiles, and 850mb dewpoints on the increase to 10C. Decent available PW with NAM showing 1.25 inches aided by surface dewpoints pushing the 60F mark, especially for the beginning of March. Looking at the potential for a stout line of storms to roll through with a low end severe potential and marginal potential for excessive rainfall. From the QPF standpoint, the system looks to be progressive, and should move quickly thru the CWA. Storms would likely bring wind, but given the time of year, hail would certainly not be ruled out and should easily sustain themselves moving south and east with height falls aloft. SPC day 3 has the whole CWA in the slight risk, and will add this to the HWO.
In the wake of the cold front, residual moisture will result in rain/snow showers Wednesday night.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 320 AM Monday...
Broad scale trough aloft situated over the Great Lakes takes the temperatures back below normal, reinforced Thursday night with another embedded short wave within the broader scale flow. Pattern becomes more zonal heading into the weekend with strong temperature recovery back into the 15-20 degree above normal range.