|Dew Point:||32.2°F (0.1°C)|
|Wind:||From the SE at 5.0 MPH Gusting to 8.0 MPH|
|Wind Chill:||27°F (-3°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||25.20" (853.3 mb)|
Chance Light Rain then Mostly SunnyHigh: 42 Low: 31
Chance Freezing Rain then Chance Light RainHigh: 40 Low: 34
Light RainHigh: 42 Low: 40
Chance Light Rain then Slight Chance Rain And Snow ShowersHigh: 49 Low: 22
Rain. Cloudy, with a low around 37. Southwest wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
A chance of rain before 10am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 42. Northwest wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A slight chance of rain between midnight and 2am, then a chance of freezing rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Northwest wind 7 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no ice accumulation expected.
A chance of freezing rain before 8am, then a chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Southwest wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Little or no ice accumulation expected.
A chance of rain before 10pm, then rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 34. South wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than half an inch possible.
Rain. Cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 40. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
A chance of rain before 7am, then a chance of rain showers between 7am and 5pm, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
A slight chance of rain and snow showers before 7pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 22.
... Moderate to heavy rain exits the region overnight from west to east. Brief high pressure on Thursday before next system arrives from the south on Friday and persists through Saturday night.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 PM Wednesday...
Still have flood headlines in affect this afternoon with more moderate to heavy rain pushing in. Winter storm warning has been dropped everywhere except for Pocahontas and Eastern Randolph County. Temperatures remain in the upper 20s to low 30s and freezing rain should continue into this evening until the cold air scours out. Likely an end time of 0Z will still be good for the warning as CAD is is starting to break down this afternoon.
Currently have a stationary front draped from SW to NE across Central West Virginia. We have one more shortwave that moves in from the SW later this afternoon and this evening with a weak surface low riding up the front. This should be the last of the of the heavy rainfall and as the wave/low exits to the NE, the front finally pushes eastward. Rainfall will come to an end from west to east late tonight. High pressure builds in Thursday morning and this will bring a much needed dry day with temperatures climbing above normal.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Wednesday...
A stalled frontal boundary will be positioned south of the region Thursday night through Friday morning while waves of energy rotate around the periphery of a subtropical ridge in the southwestern Atlantic. As this energy interacts with the stalled frontal boundary, precipitation chances will increase by Friday morning, mainly across southern areas of the CWA. However, it's possible that slight POPs could extend as far north as the northeast mountains and if precip can reach this far north before surface temps rise above freezing by mid morning, a brief period of freezing rain/sleet in the northern and central mountains could occur. Little to no ice accumulation is expected at this point, but this could make roads slick until surface temps warm above freezing.
The boundary will gradually lift northward as a warm front through Saturday morning as a mid level trough and surface cyclone move across the central CONUS. Thus, precipitation will increase in coverage from south to north Friday evening through Saturday as the aforementioned warm front pulls to the north. The majority of this precipitation should occur in the form of rain, but some light snow could occur Saturday morning in the mountains before transitioning to rain. It appears that another soaking rain is likely with this system with models indicating that QPF values will be in the 1-1.50" range. Given Wednesday's heavy rain event, most of the region will still be trying to recover and additional rainfall which could bring further hydro concerns to the area. In addition, models are indicating that there could be just enough elevated instability across western areas to support the mention of some embedded thunderstorms by Saturday evening ahead of a cold front and upper trough advancing from the west. While strong dynamics will be present, CAPE values will be low, with around 200 J/kg possible in our western counties. For now, have left the mention of thunder just outside of our area, but there is at least some risk of elevated thunderstorms Saturday night in northeast KY and southeast OH. Precipitation will then decrease in coverage from west to east towards the end of the short term period.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 150 PM Wednesday...
Cooler air will gradually move in behind a cold front Sunday and Sunday night. There is some debate among the models if the air will get cold enough for some upslope snow Sunday night.
A high pressure system will then move over on Monday.
Another system will effect the region for Tuesday night or Wednesday, but models disagree considerably with this system. Therefore confidence is low.